Friday, June 20, 2008

World Series Matchup?

I hate when everyone starts talking about a big interleague matchup being a World Series preview. Interleague takes place before or around the halfway mark of the season. There's still a lot to be determined before the playoffs even begin. Sure there are things we know up to this point. Things like the Nationals probably aren't going to make the playoffs. Or Chipper Jones is a pretty good hitter. And Tony Pena, Jr. isn't. But what's to say a team like the Phillies don't have a starter go down and their rotation falls apart? Or the Angels can't overcome their lack of punch and have a poor second half? What's to say a Mets style collapse isn't in the future of the Cubs or White Sox? That being said, six current playoff teams matchup against each other, so here's my preview of those three games:

St. Louis Cardinals (42-32) vs Boston Red Sox (46-29)
The Cardinals have been one of the surprise teams of the year, with many projections having them win somewhere in the mid-70's games. They've gotten big years out of Ryan Ludwick (.305/.374/.632, 16 HR) and Kyle Lohse (8-2, 3.77), who was signed during spring training. However, they're playing without their two of their top three players, according to the VORP calculations on Baseball Prospectus, Albert Pujols and Adam Wainwright. Boston is dealing with their own injuries, with David Ortiz and Bartolo Colon recently hitting the DL. Boston is more capable of dealing with these losses, though. They're better defensively with Manny Ramirez at DH and Crisp, Ellsbury, and Drew patrolling the outfield. Justin Masterson has pitched well and will replace Colon, with Clay Buchholz still pitching in the minors. And JD Drew has been able to pick up the offensive slack.
Bold Prediction: The Cardinals have been a good story this year but Boston's offense is too much. Boston takes 2 of 3, dropping one to the underrated Kyle Lohse.

LA Angels (42-30) vs Philadelphia Phillies (42-32)
The Angels have had an interesting season. Their run differential suggests they're a .500 team. They went six weeks without their best pitcher, John Lackey. Their number two pitcher, Kelvim Escobar, has yet to pitch. They lack serious punch in their lineup. Somehow, they're 12 games over .500 and have a 3.5 game lead over the fiesty Oakland A's. Joe Saunders has stepped up big and it seems like Maicer Izturis comes up with a timely hit every game. The Phillies offense hasn't surprised anyone this season. Their pitching, on the other hand, has been a revelation. If I told you before the season they'd have the best bullpen ERA in MLB, you would have had me committed. Even Adam Eaton has turned in a couple good starts in a row.
Bold Prediction: The Angels can keep up with the Phillies offense. Phillies drop the first but win the next two.

Chicago White Sox (41-31) vs Chicago Cubs (45-28)
The White Sox have been another one of the surprises of the season. They've been pitching way above what was expected of them. Danks and Floyd are starting to show why they were first round selections. Contreras is returning to form, though the last couple starts may be reason for concern. Surprisingly, Buerhle has been the rotation's biggest question mark, after years of being the Sox most consistent starter. The Sox still have some hitters who need to hit their stride, especially if the pitching regresses. The Cubs have been playing like the best team in baseball. The starting pitching has been solid, especially now that Lilly and Marquis are pitching better. The bullpen is (usually) lights out with Howry, Marmol, and Wood working the 7th, 8th, and 9th. And the offense is finally taking some pitches and getting on base more.
Bold Prediction: As much as it hurts this Sox fan, the Cubs sweep. They look like a team with all the makings of a World Series run.

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