NL Rookie of the Year Review

Been awhile... With the end of the season fast approaching, it's getting close to awards season and many of the debates are already raging. Let's look back though and see if there is anything to really get excited about. We'll review the NL ROY's from the 2000's in this post.

2008

Winner - Geovany Soto

Why he won - .285/.364/.504 as a catcher on the best team in the league

What he's done since - While it has only been one season since, Soto saw a huge regression. This season he's batting .219/.327/.383 in 87 games. He recently lost games to Koyie Hill, he of the 53 career OPS+. In the minors though, he had a poor OPS until 2007. Perhaps he is just regressing to his true level.

Other players to receive votes - Joey Votto, Jair Jurrjens

2007

Winner - Ryan Braun

Why - .324/.370/.634, 34 HR, 15 SB

Since - Braun was the best player in what is likely the decades best rookie class. Troy Tulowitzki gave Braun a run for the award and likely had more VALUE thanks to his far superior defense. Braun was a force as at the plate though. Since 2007, Braun has moved to Left field. He's still no defensive wizard but he offsets his defensive inadequacies with a 140 OPS+

Others - Tulowitzki, Hunter Pence, James Loney, Yunel Escobar

2006

Winner - Hanley Ramirez

Why - .282/.353/.480 with 51 SB's

Since - This was the year of the Marlins as they had 6 players receiving votes. Ramirez has become a star since then, punching up a 141 OPS+ with 169 steals to boot. His defense is erratic at SS but he makes up for it at the plate. He finally was put in a spot in the batting order where he belongs, dropping form the leadoff to the third spot. He's responded with a career high slash line of .358/.422/.575.

Others - Ryan Zimmerman, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder

2005

Winner - Ryan Howard

Why - .288/.356/.567 with 22 HR's

Since - Howard won an MVP the next year (even though Pujols' numbers were better). His defense has been bad and his batting average has fallen and his strikeout numbers have been absurd. He's become a Three True Outcomes player with a solid OPS+ (career 141).

Others - Willy Taveras, Jeff Francoeur, Garrett Atkins (fairly weak class)

2004

Winner - Jason Bay

Why - .282/.358/.550 with 26 HR's

Since - Bay is the first player to move to a new team. Now on the Red Sox, Bay has been a key component this season. In another weak class, Bay put up the best numbers. Bay's career numbers are pretty solid, with a career 131 OPS+. His defense isn't great but he has been a solid, above average player in his career.

Others - Matt Holliday, Aaron Miles (as stated, weak class), Khalil Greene

2003

Winner - Dontrelle Willis

Why - 14-6 3.30 ERA 142 SO's

Since - Willis has been moved to the Detroit Tigers and become a sad story of inconsistency. He has no control and has been through all the minors again. It doesn't look good for his career. Brandon Webb was probably a better candidate for ROY, but Willis had all that charisma.

Others - Webb, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes

2002

Winner - Jason Jennings

Why - 16-8 4.52 ERA 127 SO's

Since - Jennings numbers his rookie year were nothing special, but he had the advantage of winning a bunch of games. Jennings has moved on to the Texas teams the last couple years, pitching one season for Houston and the last two for the Rangers. He's been converted to a reliever this year after only posting one season with above average numbers after his rookie year (2006).

Others - Austin Kearns, Josh Fogg, Mark Prior (yet another down year for rookies)

2001

Winner - Albert Pujols

Why - .329/.403/.610 with 37 HR's

Since - What ever came of that Pujols fellow? He's only become the best hitter in baseball and a gold glove defender. He hits for power (364 HR's), average (.334 career batting average), and everything in between (172 career OPS+). He has 2 MVP awards and will likely win a third this season. He's the best player in baseball.

Others - Roy Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins, Adam Dunn

2000

Winner - Rafael Furcal

Why - .295/.394/.382 with 40 SB's

Since - Furcal has never been an elite hitter. A lot of his value has been tied into his speed but that has been in decline the last few seasons. He has a .349 career OBP, which is a little low for a "leadoff" guy. He's always had a cannon for an arm but has never won a Gold Glove and likely won't. It's safe to say he's in the decline phase of his career as a "31" year old.

Others - Rick Ankiel, Pat Burrell, Lance Berkman

As we can see from this little study, sometimes the voters knock it out of the park (Pujols). Sometimes they miss (Jennings). A lot of it depends on the class. This season has some guys that should be solid players (Colby Rasmus, Chris Coghlan, Andrew McCutcheon) to go with some good pitching performances (J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson). Only time will tell whether the voters hit it out or not.

Scoring Runs

After reading an article on ESPN by Jayson Stark (), something Greg Maddux said made me think. He tells Chris Young that only 18% of runners end up scoring, so he never worried about holding runners. Is that true? According to Baseball-Reference.com it is close. Their base runners scored percentages were all around 15-17%. I decided to try it long hand. The reasoning behind it is to determine whether good teams score at a higher percentage, allow scoring at a lower percentage, or create a greater difference between allowed and scored. I did the math for the American League. For those who are curious the math I did is:

Baserunners: H+BB+IBB+HBP-HR (subtracting HR's allows the math to be done for only runners who at some point were on base)

Baserunners scored: R-HR (subtracting HR's removes runs that weren't scored by a runner)

So, how did the playoff teams do?

BRS% BRSA%

Bos 31.15% 29.49%

CHW 30.98% 30.72%

LAA 31.69% 29.07%

TB 29.85% 28.31%

The Angels did remarkably well in this stat, the third best difference between scored and allowed after the Twins, who turned the highest number of runners into runs, and the Blue Jays, who allowed the fewest number of runners to become runs. The Rays, who were commended for a much improved defense, really rode that pitching and defense into the playoffs. I don't think this bodes well for the Rays this season. The pitching is bound to regress some so they'll need to convert more runners into runs. Of course, as young as their pitching is the regression may not happen, as pitchers improve instead. The White Sox were, according to this, fairly lucky to make the playoffs, as the Twins had a much better difference, more in line with the other playoff participants. And the Red Sox really followed the Rays defense and pitching mantra, being about average scoring runners (Avg 31.13%) and being well above average in preventing runs having the fifth best prevention percentage (average prevention percentage: 30.65%).

Top Five in scoring and prevention difference (with percentage being BRS%-BRSA%)

Twins (4.4%)

Blue Jays (3.43%)

Angels (2.62%)

Red Sox (1.67%)

Rays (1.54%)

That's it for now. I may or may not do the NL. Soon though, a post on contract reviews.

Scares and Good News

First a link I should have put up last week. Scary news here:

Portage senior Kyle Schiller was severely injured in an outfield collision at Crown Point on Friday afternoon, suffering multiple fractures in his face and skull.

Now the good news

Given the timetable, Schiller would be cleared to play again May 18. He plans to get fitted with a protective face mask and a attach a strap to his helmet for better security. 

Good luck Kyle

NL East

I've been thinking a lot the last few days about the NL East. The last few years it has been one of the best divisions and included some of the best races down the stretch, with the Phillies overtaking the Mets the last two years. I'm not getting the excitement about the teams this year though. Maybe I'm not giving the teams in the East a fair shake but I see serious questions for each of the teams:

Mets: The Mets are starting Daniel Murphy in left. First, Murphy's stats in the minor leagues are not bad, but he hasn't shown much power and now is being asked to play a position that often requires power. His OBP is just mediocre. And he's played the majority of his innings at a corner infield position. The Mets also have Luis Castillo starting at second, who is falling off fast- he hasn't posted an OPS+ over 100 three times in his career so it's not a big fall. Granted most of his value was wrapped in defense and steals but both of those are slipping too. I'm not sold on their rotation either. This team won't be bad, but 90+ wins? I can't see it.

Phillies: The defense, for the most part (mainly minus left field) is great. The offense can be dynamic. The bullpen, while definitely sure to regress some, is still very good. The rotation, especially without Cole Hamels, can cause nightmares. For Phillies fans, not the opposition. Jamie Moyer is 46 and one of these days will pitch like it. Brett Myers went to the minors last year before remembering how to pitch and is off to a rocky start (6 HR's allowed). Joe Blanton is not much more than league average at best and good to eat some innings. Chan Ho Park? Does anyone remember what happened last time he pitched in a hitter's park in Texas? He looked good last year when he was in Dodger Stadium pitching an inning or two in situations he can excel in. Without Hamels throwing like the All Star he is, this team is going to have to hope for a lot of runs.

Marlins: The Marlins best hope that the young pitching and players develop into the talent they could be. Outside of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and maybe to a lesser extent Jorge Cantu, this team can't be real sure of what they're going to get with so many young players, especially in the rotation. This team could surprise with a solid season, but I really wouldn't be surprised with a down season either.

Braves: I've seen a lot of optimistic projections for the Braves in the upper 80's for wins. I really can't see it. Chipper Jones is bound to miss about a third of the season. Casey Kotchman is a good defensive first baseman but isn't going to provided a ton with the bat. Jeff Franceour is either going to have to progress or he's going to hack his way out of Atlanta. Garrett Anderson and Matt Diaz is not a solution in left field (though Diaz is solid against lefties, Anderson is on the wrong side of the hill and will likely get the majority of the at bats). And the pitching is old, often injured, unproven, or unreliable. Other than McCann, Escobar, and possibly Johnson, I don't see much to get excited about.

I know this was kind of a downer post but I don't think I can see much in the NL East. There just seem to be too many questions with each team. Obviously someone has to win the division, and I know someone is bound to win 90 games, I'm just not sure who.

***Coming soon: a post about turning runners into runs. As soon as I have, you know, time. And I suppose some research.

The smell of spring

The first post of the new season in the new stream of conscious method:

• Some personal notes: I graduated! I own a BS in Chemical Engineering from Purdue University. I am working for a water treatment company and traveling a lot. Hopefully I'll get to see some baseball in there too.
• I'm having troubles coming to terms with my thoughts on the WBC. My initial thought is it's a great opportunity to spread baseball and to demonstrate the passion America has for the game. Especially in the wake of sagging ratings for just about every other baseball event. The timing is terrible though. The majority of the best players are not playing. We have a team from South Africa in the tournament (is there even a South African MLB player?). And the notion of "spreading baseball" is such a sham when the teams in the tournament are renowned for baseball (America's pastime, Cuba's history, Japan's leagues, etc). There has to be a solution. My initial feeling is the tournament would be better if it were held in November rather than March. Sure the weather is iffy, but most of the games are in domes or warm weather sites anyway. The players would be better conditioned for the tournament. I wonder if injuries wouldn't be cut significantly. Maybe I'm missing something.
• The free agency period was peculiar and most of it is attributed to the economy collapse. baseball has withstood other such depressions and thrived. My guess is, yes, some teams are cutting back on costs, but teams are also becoming much more intelligent and informed. We think Bobby Abreu's defense has slipped and now we can find stats to back that up. Does his OBP offset the defensive liablity? That's not for me to say but if I have a guy in Triple A who can give me a good OBP and not cost me runs in the field, I'm going with the cheaper minor leaguer. There has also been an influx of young talent in recent years and some of the older guys are losing jobs. I don't think there were many jobs open for the free agents. Yes, some guys, like Juan Cruz, should have been signed long ago because of the advantage he provides in a bullpen. But, overall, I think a lot of teams went into the offseason a little more set than in past years.
• Speaking of free agency, I know the Dodgers got the Manny deal done, but I can't help but think they botched it to a certain degree. Who were they bidding against? Who else is going to spend $20M on a 37 year old DH? Why rush to sign him when he has no leverage? The Giants seemed to be the only other team to show any interest (I'm definitely not an insider so maybe I'm wrong) and they denied it. No one else was in on Manny and the Dodgers still made a huge offer. Yes he makes your team better. But at some point doesn't he have to come off of his $25M per year demands and accept $18-20M when he doesn't have any other offers.
• Names I'm intrigued by:
  

1. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore- Can he live up to the hype?
2. David Price, P, Tampa Bay- He was great out of the pen for a couple innings. Now he needs to show it over a season
3. Milton Bradley, OF, Chicago Cubs- If he's healthy for the full season the Cubs are clearly the class of the Central if not all of the NL. If he's hurt, the Cubs are behind the Mets and Phillies and may be pushed by St. Louis.
4. Chris Carpenter, P, St. Louis- Speaking of the Cardinals, I think Carpenter is the key. If he bounces back from (another) surgery and Wainwright comes back and pitches well, the Cards could push the Cubs for the division and at least stay in the Wild Card race.
5. Stephen Strasburg, P, San Diego State- So I probably won't be able to see him pitch but I would love to. The stats this kid is putting up at the start of the season are unreal.

• Teams I think may surprise this year:

1. Washington Nationals- So they may not surprise in the "We're contenders" way but I think they'll definitely be better than they have been. There's some offensive potential in the outfield. Now they just need some up the middle help. And a pitching staff
2. Oakland A's- The big question for the A's is whether the young pitching talent they've acquired can step up and be big this season or if they need more development.
3. Texas Rangers- They're almost always have a huge offense as a result of their home park but they've acquired some young arms that may start showing up this year. If they can get some pitching they could be dangerous in one of the more open divisions.

That's all for now. I'll get back soon