Scoring Runs

After reading an article on ESPN by Jayson Stark (), something Greg Maddux said made me think. He tells Chris Young that only 18% of runners end up scoring, so he never worried about holding runners. Is that true? According to Baseball-Reference.com it is close. Their base runners scored percentages were all around 15-17%. I decided to try it long hand. The reasoning behind it is to determine whether good teams score at a higher percentage, allow scoring at a lower percentage, or create a greater difference between allowed and scored. I did the math for the American League. For those who are curious the math I did is:

Baserunners: H+BB+IBB+HBP-HR (subtracting HR's allows the math to be done for only runners who at some point were on base)

Baserunners scored: R-HR (subtracting HR's removes runs that weren't scored by a runner)

So, how did the playoff teams do?

BRS% BRSA%

Bos 31.15% 29.49%

CHW 30.98% 30.72%

LAA 31.69% 29.07%

TB 29.85% 28.31%

The Angels did remarkably well in this stat, the third best difference between scored and allowed after the Twins, who turned the highest number of runners into runs, and the Blue Jays, who allowed the fewest number of runners to become runs. The Rays, who were commended for a much improved defense, really rode that pitching and defense into the playoffs. I don't think this bodes well for the Rays this season. The pitching is bound to regress some so they'll need to convert more runners into runs. Of course, as young as their pitching is the regression may not happen, as pitchers improve instead. The White Sox were, according to this, fairly lucky to make the playoffs, as the Twins had a much better difference, more in line with the other playoff participants. And the Red Sox really followed the Rays defense and pitching mantra, being about average scoring runners (Avg 31.13%) and being well above average in preventing runs having the fifth best prevention percentage (average prevention percentage: 30.65%).

Top Five in scoring and prevention difference (with percentage being BRS%-BRSA%)

Twins (4.4%)

Blue Jays (3.43%)

Angels (2.62%)

Red Sox (1.67%)

Rays (1.54%)

That's it for now. I may or may not do the NL. Soon though, a post on contract reviews.

Scares and Good News

First a link I should have put up last week. Scary news here:

Portage senior Kyle Schiller was severely injured in an outfield collision at Crown Point on Friday afternoon, suffering multiple fractures in his face and skull.

Now the good news

Given the timetable, Schiller would be cleared to play again May 18. He plans to get fitted with a protective face mask and a attach a strap to his helmet for better security. 

Good luck Kyle

NL East

I've been thinking a lot the last few days about the NL East. The last few years it has been one of the best divisions and included some of the best races down the stretch, with the Phillies overtaking the Mets the last two years. I'm not getting the excitement about the teams this year though. Maybe I'm not giving the teams in the East a fair shake but I see serious questions for each of the teams:

Mets: The Mets are starting Daniel Murphy in left. First, Murphy's stats in the minor leagues are not bad, but he hasn't shown much power and now is being asked to play a position that often requires power. His OBP is just mediocre. And he's played the majority of his innings at a corner infield position. The Mets also have Luis Castillo starting at second, who is falling off fast- he hasn't posted an OPS+ over 100 three times in his career so it's not a big fall. Granted most of his value was wrapped in defense and steals but both of those are slipping too. I'm not sold on their rotation either. This team won't be bad, but 90+ wins? I can't see it.

Phillies: The defense, for the most part (mainly minus left field) is great. The offense can be dynamic. The bullpen, while definitely sure to regress some, is still very good. The rotation, especially without Cole Hamels, can cause nightmares. For Phillies fans, not the opposition. Jamie Moyer is 46 and one of these days will pitch like it. Brett Myers went to the minors last year before remembering how to pitch and is off to a rocky start (6 HR's allowed). Joe Blanton is not much more than league average at best and good to eat some innings. Chan Ho Park? Does anyone remember what happened last time he pitched in a hitter's park in Texas? He looked good last year when he was in Dodger Stadium pitching an inning or two in situations he can excel in. Without Hamels throwing like the All Star he is, this team is going to have to hope for a lot of runs.

Marlins: The Marlins best hope that the young pitching and players develop into the talent they could be. Outside of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and maybe to a lesser extent Jorge Cantu, this team can't be real sure of what they're going to get with so many young players, especially in the rotation. This team could surprise with a solid season, but I really wouldn't be surprised with a down season either.

Braves: I've seen a lot of optimistic projections for the Braves in the upper 80's for wins. I really can't see it. Chipper Jones is bound to miss about a third of the season. Casey Kotchman is a good defensive first baseman but isn't going to provided a ton with the bat. Jeff Franceour is either going to have to progress or he's going to hack his way out of Atlanta. Garrett Anderson and Matt Diaz is not a solution in left field (though Diaz is solid against lefties, Anderson is on the wrong side of the hill and will likely get the majority of the at bats). And the pitching is old, often injured, unproven, or unreliable. Other than McCann, Escobar, and possibly Johnson, I don't see much to get excited about.

I know this was kind of a downer post but I don't think I can see much in the NL East. There just seem to be too many questions with each team. Obviously someone has to win the division, and I know someone is bound to win 90 games, I'm just not sure who.

***Coming soon: a post about turning runners into runs. As soon as I have, you know, time. And I suppose some research.