Mets: The Mets are starting Daniel Murphy in left. First, Murphy's stats in the minor leagues are not bad, but he hasn't shown much power and now is being asked to play a position that often requires power. His OBP is just mediocre. And he's played the majority of his innings at a corner infield position. The Mets also have Luis Castillo starting at second, who is falling off fast- he hasn't posted an OPS+ over 100 three times in his career so it's not a big fall. Granted most of his value was wrapped in defense and steals but both of those are slipping too. I'm not sold on their rotation either. This team won't be bad, but 90+ wins? I can't see it.
Phillies: The defense, for the most part (mainly minus left field) is great. The offense can be dynamic. The bullpen, while definitely sure to regress some, is still very good. The rotation, especially without Cole Hamels, can cause nightmares. For Phillies fans, not the opposition. Jamie Moyer is 46 and one of these days will pitch like it. Brett Myers went to the minors last year before remembering how to pitch and is off to a rocky start (6 HR's allowed). Joe Blanton is not much more than league average at best and good to eat some innings. Chan Ho Park? Does anyone remember what happened last time he pitched in a hitter's park in Texas? He looked good last year when he was in Dodger Stadium pitching an inning or two in situations he can excel in. Without Hamels throwing like the All Star he is, this team is going to have to hope for a lot of runs.
Marlins: The Marlins best hope that the young pitching and players develop into the talent they could be. Outside of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, and maybe to a lesser extent Jorge Cantu, this team can't be real sure of what they're going to get with so many young players, especially in the rotation. This team could surprise with a solid season, but I really wouldn't be surprised with a down season either.
Braves: I've seen a lot of optimistic projections for the Braves in the upper 80's for wins. I really can't see it. Chipper Jones is bound to miss about a third of the season. Casey Kotchman is a good defensive first baseman but isn't going to provided a ton with the bat. Jeff Franceour is either going to have to progress or he's going to hack his way out of Atlanta. Garrett Anderson and Matt Diaz is not a solution in left field (though Diaz is solid against lefties, Anderson is on the wrong side of the hill and will likely get the majority of the at bats). And the pitching is old, often injured, unproven, or unreliable. Other than McCann, Escobar, and possibly Johnson, I don't see much to get excited about.
I know this was kind of a downer post but I don't think I can see much in the NL East. There just seem to be too many questions with each team. Obviously someone has to win the division, and I know someone is bound to win 90 games, I'm just not sure who.
***Coming soon: a post about turning runners into runs. As soon as I have, you know, time. And I suppose some research.
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